NFL Outcomes Loom Large for Sports Betting Stocks

The sports betting business is not for the faint of heart, especially during the NFL season.

While some publicly traded companies worry about things like the unemployment rate, GDP growth, and trade relations with China, online gambling firms have additional and specific concerns, such as garbage-time touchdowns and seemingly meaningless field goals. 

That’s because a massive amount of money will be legally wagered on the upcoming NFL season, or approximately $35 billion, according to the American Gaming Association. And that kind of cash poured into NFL sides, totals, and parlays can help swing a sportsbook operator’s results in a positive or negative direction on any given Sunday. 

Here’s the official release: @AmericanGaming projects this will be “the most legally wagered-on” NFL season ever, with ~$35 billion staked with authorized operators. That’s up from an estimated $26.7 billion legally wagered last NFL season.https://t.co/CFbhLPuFQK pic.twitter.com/hAuFvGcUuw

— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) September 3, 2024

DraftKings Inc. reported last fall that a tough run of football games — or “customer-friendly sport outcomes” — cost the Boston-based bookmaker tens of millions of dollars in revenue and adjusted earnings.

“Sport outcomes in the third quarter – including college and professional football game results – were favorable for our customers,” DraftKings CEO Jason Robins and then-CFO Jason Park said in a letter to shareholders at the time. “Outcomes resulted in headwinds to our revenue and Adjusted EBITDA of $40 million and $30 million, respectively.”

Those kinds of outcomes are looming over operators again this fall with college football already well underway and another NFL regular season kicking off this Thursday. A lot of wins by favorites and Overs by high-scoring teams could translate into tougher financial sledding for sportsbook operators. 

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